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 Because Iowa is more about the narrative than the delegates? Fivethirtyeight's model gives Bernie an 89% chance to win NH and Pete a 4% chance IF Bernie is the Hot Volleyball Is In My Dna Shirt clear winner in Iowa.However, if Pete is the winner in Iowa he jumps to 30 and Bernie drops to 57%. What the fivethirtyeight model doesn't account for is what if key Bernie districts' results are shelved for an extended period (like Polk county which confirms they've finished auditing their results, but have not had their district reported yet, and were very pro Bernie) so the results look like Buttigieg is winning until too close to NH to have a real impact when the truth comes out.

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